Northeastern international relations experts Pablo Calderon-Martinez and Marianna Griffini analyse the impact Karol Nawrocki’s election could have on European stability.
LONDON — Newly elected Polish President Karol Nawrocki is up for a fight — both figuratively and literally.
A former amateur boxer, he admitted during the presidential campaign to taking part in “noble” fights with other football fans to defend the honor of his beloved team, Lechia Gdansk (he reportedly has the team’s emblem tattooed on his torso).
The fighting spirit shown by the Donald Trump-backed conservative politician has also been exhibited in his views on Ukraine.
According to the Associated Press, Nawrocki supports Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion but has echoed the U.S. president’s criticisms of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of taking advantage of allies. He also opposes Kyiv joining NATO.
Pablo Calderon-Martinez, associate professor in politics and international relations at Northeastern University in London, says Nawrocki’s election is another sign of the fatigue that Ukraine’s backers are feeling as the war drags on.
He says that, with the current White House administration pushing for a resolution to the conflict in Eastern Europe, leaders on the continent are likely to struggle to change the direction of travel.
“Without support from the United States, I just don’t think anybody in Europe has the resources, strength or appetite to keep supporting Ukraine,” Calderon-Martinez says.
“I’m afraid, I think at this date, the likelihood is that essentially the war is going to end and that Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to Russia, one way or another. I don’t think events in Poland really change that dynamic drastically.
“You wouldn’t have predicted this result two years ago,” he continues. “Certainly, at the beginning of the conflict, there was such an overwhelming wave of support for Ukraine. But people get tired. A certain degree of political capital has been spent and, particularly with these prolonged conflicts where they become wars of attrition where nobody wins but nobody loses, it becomes hard to sustain external support.”
Nawrocki being against Ukraine’s accession to NATO membership is part of a right-wing criticism of the defensive alliance, Calderon-Martinez argues.
NATO’s Article 5 states that an attack against one member is considered an attack against all, triggering a collective defense response. If Ukraine were to be a NATO member in the future and Russia attacks its territory, all 32 member countries, including the U.S., Canada and the U.K., would be dragged into a battle with Moscow.
“There’s a lot of anti-NATO feeling,” continues Calderon-Martinez. “It is certainly growing in the United States and also in some countries across Europe where there is this sense and this rhetoric that we are somehow provoking Russia and that we’re walking into a conflict.”
Most political power resides with the prime minister in Poland’s political system but the president’s role is more than simply ceremonial. The office holds the power to influence foreign policy and can veto some domestic legislation.
The narrow election of EU-sceptic Nawrocki — he defeated liberal rival Rafal Trzaskowski by 50.89% to 49.11% — creates an “ominous” situation domestically for Poland, says Marianna Griffini, assistant professor in international relations and anthropology at Northeastern.
Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister and a former EU bureaucrat, has pushed for Poland’s integration into the EU and for a more liberal society when it comes to LGBTQ+ and abortion rights — changes Nawrocki, a social conservative, is firmly against.
Without the numbers in the Polish parliament to override the presidential veto, Tusk’s reforms could struggle to make it into the books. Shortly after the election result, Tusk called a confidence vote in his coalition government.
Griffini says Nawrocki fits the mold for populist leaders. The 42-year-old historian was not shy in professing his admiration for Trump, often flying U.S. flags at rallies and vowing to follow his lead in standing up for traditional family values.
Trump, in turn, heralded Nawrocki’s victory on his social media platform Truth Social, writing: “Congratulations Poland, you picked a WINNER!”
Nawrocki was backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party, which was in power in Poland for eight years up to 2023. But given that he has never held political office before, Griffini says he was able to market himself as an insurgent.
“I do think he fits the mold because, apart from his ideological beliefs, he is a newcomer and projects himself as an ordinary man, allowing him to attract the populist votes,” explains Griffini.
“He frames it in terms of being pro ‘the people’ and anti ‘the elites.’ Populism basically divides into anti-elitism and people centrism, so this really fits the mold along those lines.”
His work as the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives, is likely to help him to “revise the past” and “play with memory” when it comes to constructing his idea of Polish identity, she adds.
Even his time as a boxer and street brawler may have given him the edge with voters drawn to populist right-wing leaders, says Griffini, who researches the populism trend.
“It is part of that appeal,” continues Griffini, “the populist appeal to dislodge and to challenge rules and the establishment. This kind of back story allows him to portray himself as different.”